Ryan Wilson: Real talk about Phil Kessel Real talk about Phil Kessel

good thing hotdogs are packed with protein.

I believe Phil Kessel has gotten better in the D zone with the Pens. i love it when he back checks and hits someone. I bet he does both of these things more when the games really count in the playoffs. He knows he needs to do those things at times, and I think he IS at his best on a line of his own, but with Malkin he is fine and he will be fine for the next few years on the Pens!

I stopped reading when I read his premise that superstars don't decline as harshly or as early as other players. I am not even sure what sort of observational bias would lead to this insanity.

I believe Phil Kessel has gotten better in the D zone with the Pens. i love it when he back checks and hits someone. I bet he does both of these things more when the games really count in the playoffs. He knows he needs to do those things at times, and I think he IS at his best on a line of his own, but with Malkin he is fine and he will be fine for the next few years on the Pens!
- so_buzz11

Kessel's defense hasn't changed over the past 5 years and it shouldn't. He is not there to play defense.

He has 5 yrs left on his contract.....no way he finishes that deal as a Penguin.

If Malkin managed to play a full 82 games in a season..... imagine that.

Wilson must have been bored today.

Phil Kessel is a 2X Stanley Cup Champion!

Him not getting those unblocked shot attempts from the circle has been evident this season. If he's lost a half step on that play, it's the difference between a clear shot and the defender's stick.

Do you really think Crosby will be affected by the age curve? Will Crosby losing a half step be the difference in all of his little battles?

I stopped reading when I read his premise that superstars don't decline as harshly or as early as other players. I am not even sure what sort of observational bias would lead to this insanity.
- Cephalopods

I had the same reaction. If I want to give him the benefit of the doubt would be him meaning the ability to produce, not the actual physical decline.

How about pushing for the three-peat with even more offence

Jvr and bozak for Shultz

Gietzal-Crosby-hornquvist
Haglin-malkin-rust
Jvr-bozak-Kessel
Sheary-Wilson-reaves

How about pushing for the three-peat with even more offence

Jvr and bozak for Shultz

Gietzal-Crosby-hornquvist
Haglin-malkin-rust
Jvr-bozak-Kessel
Sheary-Wilson-reaves
- BrainSap

Toronto says no lol

Could Phil be taking less shots because he is deferring to other talented players? Maybe he knows that the team doesn't rely on him to be the guy and this causes him to pass on shots that he would normally take.

Him not getting those unblocked shot attempts from the circle has been evident this season. If he's lost a half step on that play, it's the difference between a clear shot and the defender's stick.

Do you really think Crosby will be affected by the age curve? Will Crosby losing a half step be the difference in all of his little battles?
- eNDSo

Agree. He also doesn't have a one-timer / slap shot which will impact his ability to get his shot off going forward. Phil is really good at what he does but he is far from a complete player.

Like I said a couple of weeks ago and got flamed, Kessel's value will never be higher than it is right now. His level of play and thus his value will continue to decline. Do you sell high and replace him with someone who is / almost a net equivalent and have the ability to improve the rest of the roster / weak positions or do you ride him into the ground?

Most said what Ryan said, ride him at least a year or two more. Ok, but there is risk with that approach. If the decline continues, he will be worth less next year / offseason and even though Toronto is paying part of his contract, it is still a big contract for a lot of years. Those contracts are an inherent disincentive to the acquiring team.

Just food for thought. I am not advocating for trading Kessel, but JR should be open to the idea if a team comes calling (or put him out there if there is a high value target). He is not a generational player and thus should not be given sacred cow status. Look at what Nashville got for Weber and some probably said Weber is untouchable.

Phil spent all this past season not even attempting shots because he was looking to set up. I really don't care what the rationale for it was, but it should be considered an aberration. He's been a shoot first player for the majority of his career but decided to play pass first this season for some reason. And it had nothing to do with not having looks. He had them all year but kept looking pass. So pretty much write this season off on any of these trends.

I don't think there's a team out there that can absorb his cap hit, that is a contender, that would be willing to give up something of real value to Pitt. In my mind, it only makes sense in a multiplayer swap where we alleviate ourselves of Maatta as well. A team that comes to mind is Anaheim with the option of them sending a D man. Maybe LA would send Muzzin our way (doubtful) but most realistically (imo) would be centered around Kessel for Trouba. But I don't think any of these moves get us closer to a cup. We can give Maatta less minutes now that we have Hunwick and a healthy Letang - the smart play is to lock up a solid 3C for a few years (I think the Bozak idea is indeed a good one, especially considering the other options are being snatched up and GMJR hasn't signed any insurance for the position)

I agree I don't see any evidence super stars decline less than average players. Its just that a generational guy (like crosby) would decline in an average 1c while an average NHL guy declines into ahl player.

And some guys just have different aging curves. Cullen defied time. I think the aging curve has two parts - One Part is physical; 2nd Part is mental. Some guys kick their physical training into a higher gear to stick around. Like Jagr. Kessel definitely is a guy who could improve his offseason training in order to maintain his level of play.

Agree. He also doesn't have a one-timer / slap shot which will impact his ability to get his shot off going forward. Phil is really good at what he does but he is far from a complete player.

Like I said a couple of weeks ago and got flamed, Kessel's value will never be higher than it is right now. His level of play and thus his value will continue to decline. Do you sell high and replace him with someone who is / almost a net equivalent and have the ability to improve the rest of the roster / weak positions or do you ride him into the ground?

Most said what Ryan said, ride him at least a year or two more. Ok, but there is risk with that approach. If the decline continues, he will be worth less next year / offseason and even though Toronto is paying part of his contract, it is still a big contract for a lot of years. Those contracts are an inherent disincentive to the acquiring team.

Just food for thought. I am not advocating for trading Kessel, but JR should be open to the idea if a team comes calling (or put him out there if there is a high value target). He is not a generational player and thus should not be given sacred cow status. Look at what Nashville got for Weber and some probably said Weber is untouchable.
- T-Train

EA Hockey trade idea you have. Great in Theory. Impossible to execute.

I agree I don't see any evidence super stars decline less than average players. Its just that a generational guy (like crosby) would decline in an average 1c while an average NHL guy declines into ahl player.

And some guys just have different aging curves. Cullen defied time. I think the aging curve has two parts - One Part is physical; 2nd Part is mental. Some guys kick their physical training into a higher gear to stick around. Like Jagr. Kessel definitely is a guy who could improve his offseason training in order to maintain his level of play.
- sditulli

Absolutely, but I don't think the rate of decline has anything to do with talent or coordination, it probably has more to conditioning and attitude than some mystical "superstar" attribute. What the author wrote though sure sounded like he was saying that superstars in some way do not age the same as other players.

Absolutely, but I don't think the rate of decline has anything to do with talent or coordination, it probably has more to conditioning and attitude than some mystical "superstar" attribute. What the author wrote though sure sounded like he was saying that superstars in some way do not age the same as other players.
- Cephalopods

I think attitude is big. After so many years of training its reasonable guys looks some focus at some point. Also age 27 is the age of UFA in the NHL. That is right when guys start to get paid big money and mostly guaranteed contracts. I wander how much desire that saps from a player. And if theirs a bump in play decline because of it.

I personally don't care what Phil does in the regular season. If he continues to average close to a point per game in the playoffs, he is valuable.

I think attitude is big. After so many years of training its reasonable guys looks some focus at some point. Also age 27 is the age of UFA in the NHL. That is right when guys start to get paid big money and mostly guaranteed contracts. I wander how much desire that saps from a player. And if theirs a bump in play decline because of it.
- sditulli

Its been a while and I cannot find the reference right now, but I did read an analysis once that showed pretty convincingly that decline for forwards begins on average at age 25, and starts to really ramp up around 30. Its a bit later for defensemen and goaltenders. The article was talking about the absurdity of making young players "earn their ice time", because their best year (in terms of points per minute) was at age 24, but that year is largely wasted because they are "proving" themselves and still have their ice time limited. Then their best overall year (in terms of total points) is at 25, even though their points per minute has declined a bit.

Interesting stuff.

But yes I would bet it is mostly mental, keeping that super tight and high level of focus on every little detail must be very difficult to maintain over the long haul. The physical decline probably starts to kick in around 30.

I actually don't see Kessel having a steep decline in the back half of his career. He plays very... ill say conservative... so he avoids taking any physical abuse. That is why he is always good for 80 games.

Problem with him is he has zero one timer and needs to create space to get off a clean wrister. That will become more difficult as he loses a step. Still no reason to look at trading him unless someone offers a deal you cannot refuse.